Archive for the ‘Blog’ Category

The Voters Dilemma

Posted: 20th September 2014 by seanmathmodelguy in Blog

For the last few years the city of Toronto has proved to be a very complex political arena. Attempting to predict election outcomes while quantifying the overlapping federal, provincial and municipal mandates has proven to be virtually impossible. Seemingly contradictory polls and the rhythmic beat of political rhetoric only succeed in obfuscating the issues for […]

Putting the Zero in P\(\emptyset\)LL

Posted: 29th August 2014 by seanmathmodelguy in Blog

Toronto voters are confused. Discussions concerning the veracity of landlines to cell phones in polling circles and questions about just what these numbers mean permeate the media. Strategic voting is being seriously discussed and individuals are literally twisting their logic into a variety of fascinating shapes to simultaneously make their vote count and stomach policies […]

Poll at the Forum (part 2): under the hood

Posted: 24th March 2014 by admin in Blog

In a previous blog posting I considered that the disparity between the Ipsos Reid and Forum Research results may be due to the methodology in how this polling is done. In this blog I will detail how I arrived at the final result. When we attempt to find a solution that matches the polling results […]

A Poll at the Forum (part 2)

Posted: 2nd March 2014 by seanmathmodelguy in Blog

In part one of this mini-series I talked about where statements like “this poll is considered accurate within 3 percentage points” come from and how it is possible that this is not at odds with the observed variability in the many polling results. For convenience let’s reconsider just how variable these polls are. A mid-November […]